The number of new homes commenced so far this year is almost eight times lower than by this time in 2024 and is now at its lowest level since 2016, new figures show. Latest commencement data from the Department of Housing shows 3,945 notices to commence work on new homes have been lodged so far this year. This compares to 30,689 for the same period last year. The number of commencement notices lodged between January and April has not fallen below 5,480 since 2016. A commencement notice is sent by a landowner to the local authority as a signal of their intention to begin building on a site for which they have received planning permission. It does not mean construction has started, though once the notice is validated by the council work must begin within 28 days of it being filed. The Department of Housing said the drop-off in figures was “not unexpected” and “likely reflects a shift in focus in the construction sector to progressing the homes already in the pipeline”. It said there was an “extraordinary number lodged in the last two years in response to Government measures to accelerate supply, principally through the Development Levy Waiver and Water Connection Rebate”. These two schemes were introduced in 2023 as temporary measures to stimulate the building of new housing developments. They expired in October and December last year. The Department of Finance said in February that this “reduced the accuracy” of commencement notices as a guide to the delivery of new homes. While these deadlines may in part explain the significant difference in figures now compared to 2024, it does not explain the drop off between now and before those schemes came into being in 2023. Comparing the data for the first four months of several years shows there were 9,928 notices lodged in that timeframe in 2023, 9,343 in 2022, 7,611 in 2021, 7,892 in 2020, 8,523 in 2019, 6,300 in 2018, 5480 in 2017 and 3,735 in 2016. Former minister for housing Darragh O’Brien frequently pointed to this commencement data as an indicator of increased housing supply in the pipeline. Commenting on an increase in the commencement figures for March 2024, he said it indicated “a robust stock of new housing is in the pipeline” and that “supply is increasing at pace and at scale”. Sinn Féin’s housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin said the new figures demonstrate “that housing delivery is going backwards”. Mr Ó Broin acknowledged the data may be less reliable because the 2024 figures were skewed by the deadlines for developers to avail of the two schemes. However, he said, this is “still very bad news in terms of delivery for both 2025 and 2026”. “What it demonstrates is that housing delivery is going backwards under this Government,” he said. Social Democrats housing spokesman Rory Hearne said the new figures “do not bode well for expected housing delivery in the coming years”. “While commencement data is not directly indicative of how many homes will be built, it gives a clear picture of the pipeline of home construction for the coming years. “The data we are seeing today is truly terrifying and points to a complete collapse in house commencements. Instead of turning a corner on housing, it is now clear that this Government is driving us off a cliff,” Mr Hearne said.
Alright, so get this, the number of new homes kicked off this year is like way lower than last year, and we’re talking almost eight times lower than in 2024. Like, whoa, right? The latest data from the Department of Housing shows that only 3,945 notices to start building new homes have been filed so far this year. Compared to a whopping 30,689 for the same timeframe last year, that’s a pretty big drop. And get this, the number of commencement notices lodged between January and April hasn’t been this low since 2016. So, what’s the deal with that? Well, a commencement notice is basically a heads-up from a landowner to the local authority saying, “Hey, I’m gonna start building on this site I got planning permission for.” But hold up, just because they filed the notice doesn’t mean they’ve actually started building. Once the council gives it the thumbs up, they gotta get to work within 28 days. The Department of Housing is saying this drop in numbers was kind of expected and probably has to do with the construction sector shifting its focus to homes that are already in the works. Makes sense, right? They also mentioned that there was a crazy high number of notices filed in the last couple of years ’cause the Government was all about speeding up housing supply with those Development Levy Waiver and Water Connection Rebate schemes. But hey, those babies expired last year, so that might explain why the numbers are taking a nosedive now. The Department of Finance even said back in February that all this made the commencement notices less reliable as a way to predict how many new homes were actually gonna get built. So, looks like we gotta take these numbers with a grain of salt. When you compare the data from the first four months of different years, you see some interesting trends. Like, in 2023, there were almost 10,000 notices filed, but it’s been dropping since then. And hey, former housing minister Darragh O’Brien was all about using this commencement data to show that more homes were on the way. He was pumped about the increase in commencement figures for March 2024, saying it was a sign that there was a solid amount of new housing in the pipeline. But not everyone’s on the same page. Sinn Féin’s housing dude Eoin Ó Broin is saying these new numbers are proof that housing delivery is going in reverse. He did mention that the data might be a bit wonky ’cause of those scheme deadlines, but he’s still not feeling too optimistic about the housing situation in the next couple of years. And then you got the Social Democrats housing guy Rory Hearne chiming in, saying these new figures are painting a pretty bleak picture for future housing delivery. While commencement data isn’t a direct reflection of how many homes will actually get built, it does give us a peek into what’s coming down the pipeline. And right now, things are looking pretty grim. Instead of making progress in the housing game, it seems like the Government is steering us right off a cliff. Yikes.
